ArdenAlgo · Evaluation

The four gates

A pre-registered evaluation ladder — thresholds frozen before any data arrived

Anyone can backtest their way to a beautiful curve. The only test that matters is the one you commit to before seeing the answer. That's what this ladder is: sample-size triggers, pass criteria and a null benchmark, all written down while the ledger was still empty.

G1

Detection integrity PASSED · 16 JUL 2026

Determinism tests plus a bar-by-bar cross-check against TradingView chart data — the engine sees exactly what a human sees, and the same input always yields the same output.

G2

Live edge evaluation RUNNING NOW

Every signal trades on paper, in public. When the sample completes — 60 closed trades, or 42 days with at least 30 — the pooled result is tested against a random-entry benchmark with all costs modeled. Thresholds were frozen before any data arrived. We publish the verdict either way.

G3

Conditioning IF NEEDED

Only if the pooled result warrants it: per-hour and per-symbol analysis under split-half validation — never cherry-picked cells.

G4

Forward confirmation AFTER G2

Four more weeks of live forward records after the evaluation, required to stay positive net of costs before anything is sold as more than a scanner.

Gate G1 — what was actually checked

G1 is marked PASSED, so here is what that pass consisted of, stated precisely enough to be challenged:

The pass was recorded by the operator on 16 Jul 2026 and is versioned with mechanization v1. One honest caveat, kept on record: G1 validates detection integrity, not profitability — that is exactly what G2 exists to test.

Why we don't advertise a win rate

Two counting tricks we refuse This category's headline "win rates" are usually manufactured one of two ways: counting the first take-profit of a multi-target signal as a full win (while losses count once), or quoting "maximum favorable movement" — the best price seen after the alert — as if anyone could have exited there. We publish neither. A win here is a target-hit on the stored bracket; everything else is a stop or an expiry, with costs subtracted separately in every net figure — and the raw rows are on the ledger so you can recount them yourself.

The null benchmark, in plain words

"It went up after the signal" means nothing in a market where things go up anyway. So the pooled result is compared against duration-matched random entries — thousands of simulated entries at random times, held for the same horizons, on the same symbols, with the same modeled costs. The engine only passes if its result clears what randomness produces. Full explanation →

What we publish, either way

We publish the verdict either way. The phrase is on our landing page, in this ladder, and in the waitlist e-mail you'll get — so you can hold us to it.

Where it stands right now

● LIVE Live figures below come straight from the engine database.

Closed trades
4
since 15 Jul 2026 UTC
Target hit
0%
0 of 4
Net result
▼ -256
bps — fees, slippage & funding modeled
Open now
1
paper positions

small sample — descriptive only auto-refreshes — updated 0s ago

The road ahead — triggers, not hype dates

Estimates can slip; triggers can't be fudged. Each step states the exact condition that unlocks it.

Now — live

Open ledger & site

Engine live on 8 markets, ledger public, methodology and concepts documented. You are here.

Next — on account setup

Free TradingView indicator

Published under the ArdenAlgo account as soon as it's live — free, protected source, six alert conditions. The publication package is already written.

Trigger: 60 trades or 42d∧30

Evaluation verdict

The pre-registered test runs the moment the sample trigger fires — currently estimated late August. Verdict published either way.

After the verdict

Alerts launch

The waitlist hears the launch rate first. What exactly is sold — and how it's described — depends on what the verdict says. That's the whole point.