The four gates
A pre-registered evaluation ladder — thresholds frozen
before any data arrived
Anyone can backtest their way to a beautiful curve. The only test that
matters is the one you commit to before seeing the answer. That's
what this ladder is: sample-size triggers, pass criteria and a null
benchmark, all written down while the ledger was still empty.
Gate G1 — what was actually checked
G1 is marked PASSED, so here is what that pass consisted of, stated
precisely enough to be challenged:
- Determinism — replaying identical bar data through the
engine produces identical events; dedicated determinism tests in
the automated suite enforce this
(changelog tracks the suite).
- Closed bars only — no detection path reads a forming bar;
the constraint is structural (the engine consumes completed
candles), not a setting that can drift.
- Data cross-check — on 16 Jul 2026, TradingView chart data
for BTCUSDT.P was compared bar-by-bar against the exchange-API
feed the engine consumes, across 15m, 4h and 1d sample windows —
identical to the tick. Because detection is deterministic on that
data, chart and engine cannot disagree on it; the other seven
symbols share the same feed and code path, and were not separately
compared.
The pass was recorded by the operator on 16 Jul 2026 and is versioned
with mechanization v1. One honest caveat, kept on record: G1 validates
detection integrity, not profitability — that is exactly what G2
exists to test.
Why we don't advertise a win rate
Two counting tricks we refuse
This category's headline "win rates" are usually manufactured one of two
ways: counting the
first take-profit of a multi-target signal as
a full win (while losses count once), or quoting "maximum favorable
movement" — the best price seen after the alert — as if anyone could
have exited there. We publish neither. A win here is a target-hit on the
stored bracket; everything else is a stop or an expiry, with costs
subtracted separately in every net figure — and the raw rows are on the
ledger so you can recount them yourself.
The null benchmark, in plain words
"It went up after the signal" means nothing in a market where things go
up anyway. So the pooled result is compared against duration-matched
random entries — thousands of simulated entries at random times,
held for the same horizons, on the same symbols, with the same modeled
costs. The engine only passes if its result clears what randomness
produces. Full explanation →
What we publish, either way
- Pass: the verdict, the pooled numbers, and the caveats —
followed by four more weeks of forward confirmation (G4) before the
product is sold as anything more than a scanner.
- Fail: the verdict, published just as prominently. The tool
remains what it demonstrably is — a deterministic scanner with an
honest ledger — and is sold, if at all, as exactly that.
We publish the verdict either way. The phrase is on our landing page,
in this ladder, and in the waitlist e-mail you'll get — so you can hold
us to it.
Where it stands right now
● LIVE Live figures below come straight
from the engine database.
Closed trades
4
since 15 Jul 2026 UTC
Net result
▼ -256
bps — fees, slippage & funding modeled
Open now
1
paper positions
small sample — descriptive only auto-refreshes —
updated 0s ago
The road ahead — triggers, not hype dates
Estimates can slip; triggers can't be fudged. Each step states the
exact condition that unlocks it.
Now — live
Open ledger & site
Engine live on 8 markets, ledger
public, methodology and concepts documented. You are here.
Next — on account setup
Free TradingView indicator
Published under the ArdenAlgo
account as soon as it's live — free, protected source, six alert
conditions. The publication package is already written.
Trigger: 60 trades or 42d∧30
Evaluation verdict
The pre-registered test runs the moment
the sample trigger fires — currently estimated late August. Verdict
published either way.
After the verdict
Alerts launch
The waitlist hears the launch rate first.
What exactly is sold — and how it's described — depends on what the
verdict says. That's the whole point.